…As the region’s Green House Emission from Livestock expands by 3%
Poultry among other protein meal is to accounts for 14% of Nigeria’s meat consumption in 2029. The country meat consumption is projected to increase from 1.25 million tonnes in 2020 to 1.49 million tonnes in 2029 out of which poultry meat consumption is to accounts for 13.99% in 2029, which also represent a decline of 1.98% when compared with share 15.93% in 2020. MSMEsToday has learnt from OECD-FAO agricultural outlook for 2020-2029.
Our checks show that Nigeria consumed 199,000 tonnes of poultry meat in 2020 which translated to N214.22 billion using the average international price of $2,153 per tonnes with exchange rate $500 to naira. Based on the above, Nigeria’s poultry meat consumption is projected to grow by 4.5% to 208,000 tonnes in 2029, which translate to N205.82 billion due to projected fall in international poultry meat price from $2,153 per tonnes to $1,979 at the same exchanges rate of $500.
Meeting the demand for poultry meet has been a challenge over the years, though production is up to 90% of the poultry meat demand. Presently, poultry meat production in Nigeria stands at 198,000 tonnes, which is equivalent to 99% of the demand for poultry meat. However, poultry meat production is expected grow by 4.04% to 206,000 tonnes in the next ten years. This represents also about 99% of the projected poultry meat consumption for 2029.
This increase in production of poultry meat and projected increase is base on the increase in the number of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) involved in poultry farming value chain over the years. Despite the increase in the number of MSMEs involved in poultry value chain, and government ban on importation of frozen poultry products, Nigeria still import poultry meat from other countries which is translated to about $3 billion annual expenditure on imported frozen poultry meat across the land borders.
Experts are of the opinion that poultry farming in Nigeria is on verge of collapse due various challenges confronting the sector. These challenges range from high cost of grains such as maize and soybeans, Covid-19 pandemic and the lockdown that resulted in devastating losses to farmers, illegal importation of frozen poultry products across the country’s land border, and government policy that banned the importation of maize which accounts for more than 70% of poultry feeds.
According to Fostat, the growth of the livestock sector will increase feed use. Three commodities, maize, barley and protein meals are expected to account for about 75% of the total feed use, with imports accounting for about 90% of feed demand. This trend reflects policies that prioritise the production of food crops over feed crops. Africa region is a large importer of animal feed and will import 47 Mt of maize by 2029 compared to 36 Mt in the base period.
However, different association such Poultry Association of Nigeria, Day Old Chicks Merchants Association of Nigeria among others are requesting government intervention to save poultry farming in Nigeria. Government is expected to come up with right policies to encourage production and improvement in poultry value chain and relaxation of the ban on the importation of maize for a period before the next planting season.
Globally, Poultry production is expected to grow faster than the production of other meat products at 1.9% per annum down from 2.6% per annum in the last decade, This rate of growth will help to curb the longer term decline in meat self-sufficiency. With 1.6% annual growth in livestock production, the region’s GHG emissions from livestock activities will expand only 3% by 2029 compared to the base period. Emissions from ruminants, such as cows and sheep, are expected to decline due to a decrease in herd size, but emissions from poultry are expected to increase in step with its production. Total GHG emissions in the region are projected to expand 3% by 2029.